Halton Hills Housing Update - Ep. 174

Thursday Jul 06th, 2023


Hi, everyone.

Welcome to this week's Halton Hills housing update. Today I have June numbers to report, as well as some interesting numbers from last week's sales. So diving into our year-over-year numbers, in June of 2022, our average price point was 1,179,000. We are actually down over 5% year-over-year and this month's average price was 1,119,000. That surprises me. I thought we would push closer to the 1.2, but we had a lot of sales under 700,000 this month. That’s surprising. Tons of condo,apartment/condo, townhomes, even a couple of freehold properties sold under 700,000. And that really is going to pull down our average price. Another notable thing is we're actually down 5.7% since May. I was talking the last two weeks about how things were starting to feel a little bit different. And it's really interesting to see how far we've come since May. May of 2023 and June of 2022 were almost identical numbers. They were off by $7,000. So those two months compared to this past month were just not as strong. To see our prices going backwards this month is interesting. It could be an indicator that things are starting to soften. In terms of units sold, though, last year, last June was so quiet. We were really in the heat of people taking a pause. We're actually up units 20%. Last year 72 units and this year we sold 87 units. It's no surprise that where interest rates are right now compared to last year, that our lower price point is still moving rapidly. That is pulling our pricing down a bit. Ijust thought with the amount of properties we saw sell over like 1.3 million that we might feel that average price get pulled up. But we are down over 5%. So that's where our numbers landed both year-over-year and then month-over-month compared to last month.

Looking at what happened last week in Georgetown, we only had nine sales. That is a very low number for what we've been seeing. It's an average number for Georgetown, actually it’s within our normal pocket. But compared to what we've been seeing, nine sales is definitely a soften. And we only had 14 new listings. We had more new listings than sales, so that's good for inventory. But the amount of sales we're seeing, nine is showing that buyer demand is not off the charts. We got over 20 on a couple of weeks in May. So to see only nine is maybe another indicator that things might be shifting. In Acton, there were three sales and two new listings. Glen Williams, Limehouse, and the rural market all had the same results in each of those markets - one new listing, and no sales. Another notable thing is that six properties came completely off the market. These properties terminated and didn't reenter at a new price, so that also is going to keep inventory a little bit at bay this week. I am surprised to see is our low sales count. It seems like things are shifting here a bit. 

Active inventory last week, Halton Hills had 134 active listings, this week we're at 136. So just a slight jump and I would consider that pretty stable. Georgetown went from 79 to 82 active listings. 82 - we have not seen that number since 2022. That is not a super high number for Georgetown, but it's definitely not low. We are seeing this number week to week go up. Now, we are not seeing it jump by 10-15 listings, but to see it going up again, all these little things are indicating that something is changing here because normally if we had 82 listings a month ago, we would have seen 25 sales. It's just showing buyer demand is shifting a bit. 

Looking at our active price points, under 800,000 dropped significantly from eight to four active listings. And like I said, we saw a ton of stuff selling in that price point. Everything that's coming up in that price point is selling. Buyers buying power with these interest rates is just scaled back, and so, that's why those lower price points are really moving. 800 to a million has been pretty stable. And we went from 14 active listings to 20 active listings in that price point. What will be interesting to see is if those move this week, because if we start to see inventory pile on at 800 to a million, which is a very active price point in Georgetown, that is going to be bad news. Because if those stop moving, everything else is going to stop moving. A million to 1.5 million is up slightly from 18 to 19 active listings. Again, it's on the climb, but not dramatic. 1.5 million plus is sitting insanely high at 39 active listings. It has not changed from last week, but 39 active listings over 1.5 million is a massive amount of our active inventory sitting in a very high price pocket. Almost half of our inventory over 1.5 million. So if you are in that price point, you might be in for a long haul here trying to find a buyer who's willing because they have tons of options available. Looking at Acton this week, Acton is down from 15 to 13 active listings. Glen Williams is down from nine to eight. They had one of those six properties that came off the market was there. Limehouse went up from three to four active listings. It doesn't sound like a lot at four, but that is huge inventory for Limehouse and the rural market went up from 28 to 29 active listings.

So the theme of this week is we are seeing inventory climb and it just feels like things are changing a bit. I've been talking about it for a couple of weeks now, the demand is just different. I'm not surprised by where our actual market numbers are. I am surprised where the June numbers landed there. We're down quite a bit. And so our higher price points, like when we're looking at almost 40 active listings, over 1.5 million. If those things aren't moving, it's going to keep our average price lower because the lower price point stuff is still moving. In May we saw a ton of sales over 1.5 million. And it pulled everything up, so what we're feeling right now in the market is definitely lower buyer demand. The sales are showing that we are nowhere near the levels of buyer demand that we had a month ago, and we have inventory available for them to buy. And so all of these things are just pointing towards a changing market again.

I don't think that's going to happen overnight, but week to week, we're starting to see inventory sort of climb. If we're not seeing high sales, then all of these factors are going to just change the market. So I'm watching this really closely. June's numbers surprised me. So it will be interesting to see what happens in July. If we don't see a ton of listings come up, there's a good chance with buyers still out there that we have a good month in July. But if inventory continues to rise through July, we're going to be in for a very long summer. Because the buyer demand just is not keeping up with new listings. So I'll be back next Tuesday to see what happens the first week of July. Have a great week, everyone.



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