2022 Market Predictions

Monday Jan 10th, 2022



Here are my predictions for the 2022 real estate market. This time last year, I really thought that by the end of 2021 we would be in a more balanced market, but we ended the year in a worse spot than where we started. As it stands, I personally have dozens of buyers who are ready to pull the trigger and buy a home, but there is nothing for them to buy. And then it's getting into this vicious cycle of them not being able to list the homes they're currently in because they have nothing to move to. So, this is really putting us in a spot, and this is just me. There are tens of thousands of realtors in the GTA who are feeling this backlog as well. 

So, prediction one is we will see prices continue to climb at least 10% in the first six months of 2022. I wanna believe that this isn't gonna happen, but the reality is we are already seeing unprecedented activity in 2022. And with the demand being at the highest it's ever been and the supply being at the lowest it's ever been, this is just gonna continue to fuel that fire for the prices to increase. I do think that the back half of 2022 will see prices increase, just not at the pace that we saw in 2021 or in the first half of 2022. As well, at some point, I foresee the higher powers are going to be stepping in and possibly making some changes to the non-resident buying, possibly some new tax rules, and maybe some changes to the mortgage qualifying process because something has to be done to help cool off what's been happening in the last 18 months. 

Prediction two is there will definitely be no crash. There is no bubble to burst here. I think we're in for 12 more solid months of a seller's market. With the delays in new housing, the mass exodus from the city is continuing, and immigration is ramping up, there's just not a single indicator that this market is going to just implode. 

Prediction three is that we are gonna see a hike in interest rates. No one knows for sure, but it is highly likely based on what we started seeing in 2021. We are far from seeing a massive jump. It would simply cause too many issues. I could easily see by the end of 2022 being up a hundred basis points, so that's 1% from where we are right now. 

Lastly, prediction four is that units sold will be down. This has been a glaring trend for the last six months of 2021, and I anticipate it's going to continue. We have repeatedly seen prices increasing and units sold decreasing versus the previous year, and I think that trend is here to stay through 2022. I mean, it isn't for lack of trying. The buyers would really love for units sold to be up because it would mean that inventory is coming on the market. But I think we are gonna see historically low inventory levels in 2022, and that means there are just not enough houses out there for people to buy, so units simply cannot increase. 

So, that's where I think we are going this year. I really would love to be an optimist for all the buyers out there, but the realist in me thinks my predictions are fairly in line with where the 2022 real estate market is going to go. So, make sure that you follow my Instagram or Facebook because I do my weekly market updates, and that gives you a review of the sales and inventory levels and just a snapshot of where the current market stands. So, buckle up because I think we are in for a bumpier, even more wild ride than we had in 2021.

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