Halton Hills Housing Update - Ep. 122

Wednesday Jun 08th, 2022


Today is a doozy of an update. I have May numbers as well as some pretty crazy weekly numbers, so let's have a look. This is, I think, a really important conversation about our May numbers, because people are losing sight of where we've come from year over year. All they're thinking about is what they've lost since February and March, and they are still not thinking about the big picture. In May of 2021, we had 109 units sell, but our average price was 1,036,348. This year, May of 2022, our units are down to only 83 units sold. The more interesting thing with this is that there was tons of units available. This just shows how low buyer demand is right now, but our average price was 1.269 million, which is still up 22% since 2021. Anyone that owned a house last year to this year has still made 22% on their property. People are losing their mind about where prices are right now because of where they came from at the start of the year. The last time, and I've been telling people this as we've been transacting in this market is our prices are now going back to where they were last September and October, last fall is sort of where we're seeing sale prices landing. The last time we saw average prices around the 1.25 range to 1.3 was in September and October. We are just back to where we were, but also another thing to remember, in a normal market year over year, we go six to 8% is our average increase in pricing. Even if the market drops another 10%, we're gonna be back where we should have been if we had just followed a normal trend in the market. This is just that reminder that yes, we've gone backwards, but we are still way further ahead than we normally would've been in any given year.

The month that had the highest average price this year was March. Our average price in March got up to 1.49 million. We are technically down 12% since March, but everyone knew, and everyone was talking about, this can't sustain, this isn't realistic. We knew that what was happening was artificial. What is happening now is we're balancing out, we're correcting ourselves. Yes, we are down 12% since March, but the only people that are technically losing are the people that didn't cash out and need to just sell and not buy. The buyers and the sellers that are doing both transactions have to remember that they are buying at a lower price as well. This is all just going back to normal. When you look at the big picture, it is still bananas that we are up 22% year over year. There's still room for us to go backwards and we will be above normal trends. I do think our June prices are going to soften even further from that. I think the initial huge drop in our pricing has already hit. We're going to get through the summer, we're gonna stabilize here, but I do think we still have a little bit more of a drop in here.

Taking a look at the weekly numbers, Georgetown only had six sales. The last time we had numbers that low was in December, January when there was literally nothing to buy. Only one of them got over asking, so you're just seeing the market we're in. Another interesting thing is all those six sales were under $1.2 million. I've been talking about how our upper price points really start to feel the pinch, and they're the ones that are sitting. There's very few buyers willing to spend crazy money on these properties. Nothing moved over 1.2 this week in Georgetown, and there is a boatload of listings in that price point. We did only have 19 new listings, but we have been seeing 20 to 35 new listings the last month or so. We had a ton of properties terminate and re-list at a lower price because the reality is, is we are down 12% since March. People have to adjust their list prices accordingly. We're starting to see a lot of movement in price points. With 19 new listings, what's going to happen, I think, is we're gonna start to see less and less new listings hitting the market as we normally do through the summer, and that's gonna help to stabilize things, 'cause there are still buyers out there, they're just not willing to be crazy right now. Acton this week only had two sales and three new listings. It had a couple properties though come right off the market, so Acton's got some juggling going on too. Glen Williams had no sales, but two new listings. Limehouse had one sale, no new listings. The rural market had one sale and two new listings. Overall in all of Halton Hills this week, we only had 10 sales. That is an extremely, extremely low number, and it just shows how few buyers are out right now, given the fact that there are tons of houses to buy.

Now looking at active inventory, this number just won't stop. I can't wait for a week when it does, because this is just crazy, but we're still up this week. Last week we're at 172 properties in Halton Hills, and this week we're up to 181. The market that's feeling it the most is Georgetown. The other markets are not feeling such a rush of inventory, but Georgetown is just getting slammed. Last week, Georgetown had 115 listings, and this week we're up to 124 active listings. Looking at our price points, under 800,000 is up from seven to eight listings this week, so not a huge jump. The only price point that's down is 800 to a million. It went from 27 to 24 active listings. Like I talked about, everything that sold this week was under that 1.2, and most of it fell in that eight to one million pocket. One to 1.5 million officially is over the 50 threshold. We're at from 49 to 53 active listings this week. So many listings in that price point, and just not a lot of movement. The real situation is for sure those listings over 1.5 million right now. We had a three, four week period where not much was happening above 1.5, but the last few weeks, nothing is selling, so their numbers are just climbing. We were at 31 active listings last week, and we are up to 39 active listings over 1.5 million just in Georgetown. There is so few buyers in that pool, and those people are the ones that the comparable properties were getting massive money in February and March. There's just not buyers now. Those prices are coming down and they're gonna have to come down hard from the top because there is absolutely nothing moving, and that price point is not one that a lot of people can afford, especially when they have high interest rates, hesitancy on what they're gonna get on the property that they're selling. There's so many factors that is really going to kill the buying pool and our higher price point stuff.

Acton this week had a couple terminate come off, so we're actually down this week to 21 active listings. Glen Williams is up to eight active listings from six, Limehouse is down to only two active listings from three, and the rural market remained the same at 26 active listings this week. Overall, a crazy update this week. We are in a complete 180 from where we were in March. There's so much inventory, not a ton of sales. Prices are coming down. It's all just very interesting. I do think we're still in for price points and our overall average sales price coming down in June. The nice thing we're seeing, those people are starting to list properties accordingly. We're not seeing a lot of people kind of stretching, they're seeing what comparables are selling for, and they're being realistic with their list prices. It's just a major shift, and I think there's a lot of buyer hesitation, which is causing a lot of this, but the interest rates are certainly not helping. Someone that last year could get $1 million mortgage at 2%, let's say, can only get an $800,000 mortgage now at 4%. There is just not the buying power that there was, and so prices are gonna have to come down to reflect that. I will be back next Tuesday, have a great week everyone.


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