Halton Hills Housing Update - Ep. 117

Tuesday May 03rd, 2022


Welcome to this weeks Halton hills housing update. Today we are going to look at April’s unofficial numbers. There might be a few things that still trickle in, but the numbers are really interesting and showing major signs towards what we’ve been talking about & the fact that we’re leaving that sellers market. In April of 2021 we sold 147 units. In April of 2022 we sold 91 units, so that is down 38%. What’s more interesting is the months where we have been down units year over year, it’s been directly correlated to the fact that there’s been no inventory to buy. Our sales were low because there was literally no houses on the market and that was different this month. There is, and was, plenty of homes to buy in the month of April and they simply were not being bought. To be down 38% and inventory actually being available is a huge indicator that things are changing. 

Now looking at average price point, and I think this is a really important conversation that a lot of people are losing sight of. Our average price in 2021 was $1,069,000. This year it’s $1,385,000. We are up 29% year over year. We are down 5% since March. People are kind of freaking out that their houses are going to be down in price, and that they’re not getting the money that they should be getting out of their houses, but we need to not lose sight of the fact that what happened the first few months of this year was completely insane, and so, we could still correct by 20% this month and our market is still going to be down by 10%. In a normal year, we would see a 6-8% increase in real estate. We’re up 30%, yes we are down from the peak we saw in February and even March numbers, but we are still so up - we still have such a ways to go before we are so far backwards on this stuff. I just want people to keep that in mind that we are correcting. We are just going back to where we were in 2021, it’s kind of like ‘oh this whole year of chaos didn’t happen’ and now let’s get back to where we sort of should be. It is going to be so interesting to see what happens in May, but just don’t lose sight of how much money was actually made on your real estate investments in just the last year. 

Looking at the sales last week. Georgetown had 15 sales. This number has been pretty consistent. We’ve been seeing between 12-16 sales with tons of inventory available. We are now in this stabilized market where this is how many properties generally transact, so 15 sales this week - tons of options to buy but the buyers just aren’t there. What is not great news for the sellers out there is that there’s 31 new listings in Georgetown this week. That is a very high number for Georgetown and it’s certainly not in the time that we need it right now because there is just so much in the market, but that trend of inventory rising is just continuing. Acton this week had 6 sales and 3 new listings. Glen Williams had 3 sales which is a very big week for the Glen, and 1 new listing. Nothing happened in Limehouse and the Rural market had 1 sale, and 3 new listings. 

Now looking at active inventory which is what we have been really paying attention to the last few weeks. We are up to 127 available units in Halton hills. The highest number ever in the last two years of doing these updates is June of 2020, we hit 137 and we just went down from there. We are getting very close to the two year high right now. We went from 114 to 127 this week and that is a lot of inventory. Georgetown is hands down the market that is feeling this the most. It just will not stop with the new listings and the buyers are not out right now and so, this is really interesting. Last week, Georgetown was at 74, this week we’re at 91 active listings. That is a really big number - that’s even a big number in a regular market, like we would see 110-130 units in Georgetown but pretty insane to think where we were 8 weeks ago to now. Our inventory from January is like 10x the amount, so this is not good news for sellers. 

Under $800,000 is up this week. We had 6 last week, we are at 9 active listings this week under $800k. $800,000 - $1,000,000 is up from 14 to 16 active listings. $1,000,000 - $1,500,000 last week we were at 36 which we thought was a crazy number, this week we’re at 49. That pocket is packed with inventory. There are so many available units there and so many things to choose from. I am still in shock when I think about this number, knowing where we came from. We thought 2 months ago, ‘was this ever going to end?’ But here we are and having this much supply and this low demand is what’s going to cause prices to continue to drop, or continue to ‘correct’ as I’ve been saying. $1,500,000+ is down slightly this week to 17 active listings. Not a ton of listings in the higher ticket stuff, kind of saturating the market but that mid price point between $800k and $1.5M were sitting at 65 of the 91 listings so there’s so much in that pocket.

Now looking at Acton. Inventory is down slightly this week because they did have quite a few sales, so it’s down to 14 active listings in acton. Glen Williams is down to 4 active listings. Limehouse has no active listings, and the rural market is up to 18. Overall, the same thing is trending and happening this week that has been happening the last 4 weeks. We are fully transitioning from our sellers market. It means we’re gunna stop seeing things like offer nights, they simply are not working anymore. We’re gunna start seeing everyone listing their homes at market value. We are gunna see conditions coming back. I guarantee you we are gunna start seeing the sale of buyers properties coming back because buyers have options right now and they’re also still in the situation where they’re going to be listing their house now in these markets that are saturated, and another thing is we are going to start seeing people start selling their houses before they buy which is something 99% of buyers in the last two years have been buying before they sell because there has been nothing for them to choose from, so we’re gunna start to see a lot of different things here. I’m watching this closely and I think May is going to be a not great month for prices based of what’s going on here. I hope you all have a great week, see you next Tuesday! 


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